Jays still have a lot to play for
Baseball Betting Lines
09/07/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pride, spoiler status, and individual accolades. That's about all the Toronto Blue Jays have left to play for in the 2010 season. With the Jays now equipped with a 40-man roster at their disposal, youngsters can use this month as a time to showcase their talents and leave a lasting impression in the eyes of the organization.
Some things to watch over the final month of the season:
IMPACTING THE RACE
Toronto will play 16 of its remaining 25 games against teams with playoff aspirations, starting with six straight home games against the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays after defeating the AL-West leading Rangers on Monday. The Jays will also visit the Boston Red Sox for three and host the New York Yankees for another three at the end of the month. Toronto will then end the season in Minnesota for four games against the Twins at Target Field.
A strong finish by the Blue Jays (71-66) may not only have an impact on the AL playoff race, but the team could reach the 80-win plateau for the fifth time in the past six seasons. The 75-87 record the Jays finished with in 2009 was the worst the club has posted since a 67-94 campaign in 2004. The success Toronto has achieved is in large part due to a strong and surprising pitching staff that has proven its worth in the AL East.
The four mainstays of the rotation - Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow - have all strung together career years, going a combined 45-29 on the season.
Shawn Hill will at least temporality fill the void left by Morrow, who was shut down for the season due to an innings limit. Hill is slated to start the series finale against the Rangers on Thursday.
The Jays will round out the rotation with lefty Marc Rzepczynski who, despite his struggles, still remains an intriguing option for the remainder of the year after posting a 3.67 ERA over 11 starts in 2009. Rzepczynski has started consistently since mid-August and has a 1-3 record with a 6.62 ERA on the season.
GETTING ANOTHER LOOK
Catcher J.P. Arencibia and third basemen Jarrett Hoffpauir have both been recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas of the Pacific Coast League. Both players were PCL All-Stars and Arencibia's strong offensive campaign of .301-32-85 earned him PCL MVP honors.
Arencibia is in the long-term plans of the franchise but it's uncertain if that will result in a full-time gig behind the plate starting as early as next season. The current tandem of John Buck and Jose Molina are not guaranteed to be with the club in 2011, forcing management to decide on which, if any, backstop to bring back.
Buck will become a free agent at season's end and the Jays have a club option on Molina worth $1.2 million for 2011. If Toronto is confident enough with Arencibia, Molina will be the likely choice based on the attention that Buck is sure to garner on the open market.
Hoffpauir, meanwhile, will try to prove that at the age of 27 and a career spent almost entirely in the minor leagues, he's capable of filling a need at the major league level. Further, it just so happens that third base is a big question mark the Jays face heading into the 2011 season. His line of .295-16-73 for Las Vegas this year may have earned him a look if the Jays are unable to acquire an impact bat during the off-season.
MILESTONES
Jose Bautista is having a season that will entrench him in the Blue Jays' record books. The All-Star has a legitimate chance at setting the franchise's single-season home run record currently held by George Bell, who clubbed 47 in his MVP season of 1987. Bautista is sitting at 43, which ranks as the fourth- highest total in club history behind Bell, Jose Canseco (46) and Carlos Delgado (44).
The slugger has already surpassed the Jays' single-season total for walks (88) by a right-handed batter, previously held by Dave Winfield (82) in 1992. He's also in good position to set the team's all-time mark for highest slugging percentage and most extra-base hits in a season by a right-handed hitter.
Gregg, on the other hand, is having a career year despite the uncertainty that arises each time he takes to the mound. The 32-year old is likely to collect the most saves of his career and could post his best ERA and K/9 ratio as well. Gregg is two saves shy from his career-high of 32 set with the Florida Marlins in 2007 and his current ERA of 3.28 would be his lowest of any season. In addition, his 9.67 K/9 ratio is surely to pass his previous best of 9.32, also set in '07.
Gregg may not be the closer for the Jays moving forward but he has pitched effectively enough for the club to consider picking up his $4.5 million option for 2011.
With the club inching closer to reaching the next level, the Blue Jays should consider the playoffs a legitimate goal next year for the first time since 1993.
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Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament odds
As of February 9, MySportsbook.com has released its coveted 2007 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament betting odds. “March Madness betting ” only a month away, the top ranked Florida Gators are favorite at 7-2 to win it all. The defending champs have not disappointed at all this season and currently have a 22-2 record and are undefeated (9-0) in SEC play. The Gators’ thrive off of their extremely balanced, experienced and versatile attack. All five starters started in last seasons National Championship game. What is most impressive with this group is their balance; the five starters all average between 10.7 and 13.6 PPG. The Gators have been on an absolute roll having won 15 straight by an average of 16.4 PPG.
Right behind the Gators are the 5th ranked UNC Tar Heels at 9-2. The Heels (21-3, 7-2) are absolutely loaded with top notch talent and are as deep as any team in the country. A concern for the Tar Heels might be inexperience. Of their top four scorers/ minute earners, three are freshmen and the other is a sophomore. The rest of the regular season, the Tar Heels play only one team that is currently ranked (Duke). Their remaining opponents do combine for an impressive 107-58 record though.
Other teams that the MySportsbook.com members seem to believe will win it all include the west coasts’ top team #2 UCLA (6-1), #3 OSU behind man-child Greg Oden (8-1), and #4 Wisconsin (10-1) behind their defense which has given up 70+ points only three times all season.
Below is a list of some of the favorites to win the 2007 Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship lines. For the full list of teams and March Madness odds be sure to log onto MySportsbook.com. If you want to use your credit card to bet on college hoops or any other event, MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.
Arizona 20-1
Butler 20-1
Duke 30-1
Florida 7-2
Georgetown 30-1
Indiana 35-1
Kansas 15-1
Marquette 25-1
Maryland 40-1
Memphis 50-1
Nevada 50-1
UNC 9-2
OSU 8-1
Oregon 30-1
Pittsburgh 15-1
Texas 30-1
Texas A&M 18-1
UCLA 6-1
Wisconsin 10-1
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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